Six families of meteorological calculations, combined in real-time for each detected storm cell.
Convective Available Potential Energy in all its forms. Measures available energy for storm updrafts. The higher the CAPE, the more explosive the convective potential.
Thresholds: >1000 J/kg moderate | >2500 J/kg strong | >4000 J/kg extreme
Compares the temperature of a lifted air parcel to the environment at 500 hPa. A negative LI indicates instability favorable to storms.
Thresholds: <-2 unstable | <-4 very unstable | <-6 extreme
Energy needed to trigger convection. CIN too strong prevents storms, too weak allows widespread disorganized initiation.
Thresholds: >50 J/kg strong inhibition | 25-50 moderate | <25 faiblelt;25 weak
Equivalent potential temperature at 850 hPa. Key indicator of warm moist air mass in lower levels, fuel for violent storms.
Thresholds: >330K storm potential | >340K strong instability
Wind difference between surface and various altitudes. Shear organizes storms, separates updrafts and downdrafts, and favors supercells.
Thresholds 0-6km: >20 m/s organized | >30 m/s supercellular
Measures the rotation potential of the updraft. Low-level helicity (0-1 km) is critical for tornado potential.
Thresholds 0-1km: >100 m²/s² rotation | >250 m²/s² tornadic
Helicity relative to storm movement. Key for evaluating mesocyclone potential and probability of persistent rotation.
Thresholds: >150 m²/s² mesocyclone likely | >300 m²/s² intense
Vector representation of the upper wind profile. Its curvature and length determine the expected storm type: linear, right-moving or left-moving supercell.
Combines CAPE, deep shear and SRH to evaluate the overall supercell potential of an environment.
Thresholds: >1 supercell possible | >4 favorable environment
Composite parameter specific to significant tornadoes (EF2+). Integrates CAPE, LCL, shear and low-level helicity.
Thresholds: >1 significant tornado possible | >4 high risk
Combines CAPE and helicity to simultaneously quantify available energy and rotation. Robust indicator of severe weather potential.
Thresholds: >1 rotation possible | >2 mesocyclone likely
Ratio between buoyancy and shear. Determines convection type: multicell, supercell, or intermediate.
Thresholds: 10-45 supercellular | <10 too sheared | >45 multicellular
Altitude at which an air parcel reaches saturation. A low LCL favors tornadoes by bringing the mesocyclone base closer to the ground.
Thresholds: <1000m bas (tornadique)lt;1000m low (tornadic) | 1000-1500m moderate
Altitude where the parcel becomes warmer than the environment and accelerates freely. The LFC-LCL difference indicates ease of initiation.
Theoretical top of storm updraft, where the parcel reaches environmental temperature. Determines maximum height of convective towers.
Identifies inversion layers blocking convection. Their erosion (daytime heating, forcing) determines initiation timing.
Zones where surface winds converge, forcing air upward. Main mechanical trigger for storms in homogeneous air masses.
Cold stratospheric air intrusion at altitude. Powerful dynamic forcing that destabilizes the column and promotes deep convection.
Absolute vorticity at altitude and jet stream position create upper-level divergence zones promoting large-scale ascent.
Forced lifting by terrain (Pyrenees, Massif Central, Alps). Wind channeling in valleys and convergence at the foot of relief.
Reference method for supercell motion. Decomposes mean wind and deviation due to mesocyclone rotation (right-moving or left-moving).
Ref: Bunkers et al. 2000, Weather & Forecasting
Probabilistic simulations exploring thousands of possible trajectories. Generates probability corridors rather than a single trajectory, integrating inherent uncertainty.
Trajectory adjustments based on real terrain: deviation by mountain ranges, valley acceleration, ridge blocking. Essential for precision in Europe.
Real-time automatic classification: ordinary cell, multicell, supercell (right/left), squall line, MCS. Each type has its own movement model.
The research behind our approach. All peer-reviewed and published in leading scientific journals.
50% increase of supercells in the region alpine. Confirmation that climate change intensifies violent storms in mountainous Europe.
Read studyEurope-wide study showing the increastion in frequency and intensity of severe convective events linked to climate change.
Read studyLong-term trend analysis of lightning and hail in Europe. Essential data for calibrating our detection and intensity algorithms.
Read studyEuropean Environment Agency report. 55 billion euros in annual economic losses from extreme weather events in Europe.
View reportFounding paper of the Bunkers method for predicting supercell motion. Scientific foundation of our Diamond Trajectory Engine and its orographic corrections.
Read studyStorm Predict is committed to full transparency about its methods, results, and limitations. Meteorology remains complex, perfection doesn't exist. We tell you clearly.
Algorithms continuously improve with each tracked storm. Each season brings new data, new validations, and new improvements.